Working on the economics of transition.

Introduction

The thirty economies

Between 1989 and 1992, Central and Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and Mongolia all began to move away from central planning. This page follows thirty of these economies, from Slovenia to Mongolia. In 1990 they had 413 million people between them.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

One circle per economy

From here on, each circle is one economy, placed roughly where it is on the map and coloured by region:

• Central Europe and the Baltics
• South-eastern Europe
• Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
• Russia
• Central Asia and Mongolia

Population in 1990

Here the circles are sized by population. Russia had 148 million people, Montenegro about 600,000. The rest of the charts give each economy equal weight.

Source: World Bank WDI.

Chapter I · 1990–2000

Output fell almost everywhere

The planned economy broke down faster than markets could replace it. By 1995 the median economy was producing 31% less per person than in 1990. Each circle marks an economy's lowest point.

GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, 1990 = 100. Bosnia and Herzegovina is left out because its early-1990s series is not comparable with later years. Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia have no data for 1990. Source: World Bank WDI.

The deepest falls

Georgia, Tajikistan and Moldova lost between 65% and 73% of their output per person. All three went through armed conflict in the early 1990s. Poland, which launched its reform programme in January 1990, lost 7%.

Source: World Bank WDI.

Recovery took years

Poland was back at its 1990 level by 1994. The median economy got there in 2003, Georgia in 2012, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan in 2022 and Moldova in 2023. Ukraine still has not.

Source: World Bank WDI.

Chapter II · 1990–1995

Inflation

When price controls were lifted, years of pent-up demand and cash savings hit the shops at once, and many governments printed money to cover their deficits. Ukrainian consumer prices rose 4,735% in 1993, roughly doubling every nine weeks. Hungary, which had already freed many prices before 1989, peaked at 35%.

Peak annual average consumer price inflation, 1990–99. World Bank WDI, with gaps filled from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Open circles mark series that start after prices were freed, so the true peak may have been higher. No comparable data for Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo and North Macedonia.

Chapter III · 1990–2000

A mortality crisis

Life expectancy at birth fell across much of the former Soviet Union. In Russia it went from 68.9 years in 1990 to 64.5 in 1994. In Bosnia and Herzegovina and Tajikistan, where there was war, it fell much further.

Each circle marks an economy's lowest point by 2000. Source: World Bank WDI.

Change from 1990 to 1995

Life expectancy fell by 4.2 years in Russia, 3.2 in Ukraine and 2.9 in Latvia. It rose in Czechia, Slovakia and Poland. Brainerd and Cutler (2005) point to alcohol and stress. Stuckler, King and McKee (2009) blame mass privatisation, a link Earle and Gehlbach (2010) dispute.

Source: World Bank WDI.

Chapter IV · 1995–2007

Democracy and income

By the mid-1990s the richer economies of Central Europe and the Baltics were also the most democratic. Most of Central Asia was poorer and scored close to zero on V-Dem's index.

Horizontal: V-Dem liberal democracy index, 0 to 1. Vertical: GDP per capita at PPP, log scale. Sources: V-Dem v16; World Bank WDI.

Joining the EU

Eight of these economies joined the European Union in 2004, Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 and Croatia in 2013. Members are ringed. Candidates had to adopt EU law before joining, which gave their reforms a deadline.

Sources: V-Dem v16; World Bank WDI.

Chapter V · 1995–2025

Catching up with the G7

Lithuania's income per person went from 28% of the G7 average in 1995 to 76% in 2025, and Poland's from 33% to 73%. Ukraine was at 25% in both years.

GDP per capita at PPP as a percentage of the population-weighted G7 average. Open circles show 1995, filled circles 2025. Source: World Bank WDI.

Chapter VI · 1990–2025

Fewer people in Europe, more in Central Asia

Latvia has 31% fewer people than in 1990, and Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina 29% fewer, mostly because of emigration and low birth rates. Ukraine's fall also reflects the war. The populations of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have doubled.

Source: World Bank WDI.

Chapter VII · 2007–2025

Democratic backsliding

Hungary's liberal democracy score fell from 0.77 in 2007 to 0.32 in 2025. Poland's fell after 2015 and has partly recovered since the 2023 election. Russia is at 0.06, close to Belarus and Turkmenistan at the bottom.

Source: V-Dem v16 via Our World in Data.

War in Ukraine

Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 cut Ukraine's output per person by 23% in one year. In 2025 it was still 29% below its 1990 level. Of the economies with comparable data, Ukraine is the only one that has not recovered.

GDP per capita at PPP, 1990 = 100, log scale. Source: World Bank WDI.

2025

Where things stand

Czechia now produces 77% as much per person as the G7 average, Tajikistan 8%. Estonia scores 0.84 on V-Dem's democracy index, Belarus 0.04. The interactive figure below has the data behind every chart.